The European road transport market continues to struggle in 2025. Road trade between the main European economies (Germany, France, Poland, Italy, and Spain) has tended to stagnate since the beginning of the year, and demand is only very timidly picking up.
Moreover, the recovery remains very uneven across markets: Spain continues to show remarkable dynamism, while Germany, for example, continues to weigh on the entire market with a struggling manufacturing sector.
The slight recovery was nevertheless enough to raise freight rates back up in the third quarter 2025:
Source: Upply
The contract market has probably benefited from the improved business climate in industry, which is driving companies to secure capacity. This is a sensible strategy. For now, given the low volumes, there are no difficulties in accessing the transport offer. But road transport companies are currently very cautious about making investments: new registrations of heavy goods vehicles are clearly trending downwards, which could create tensions in the market in the event of a stronger recovery.
The rise in transport prices on the contract market is also correlated with the cost increases faced by road carriers. Given the low margins in the sector, their impact, at least partial, is inevitable.
On the spot market, the trend reversed in the third quarter of 2025. After two quarters of decline, prices have started to rise again, but this remains moderate, which reflects the timidity of the recovery.
The holiday season could exert slight upward pressure. The Ti x Upply x IRU confidence index rose to 12.7, its highest level since the end of 2023. Most market players anticipate a moderate rise in rates in Q4, driven by:
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