BAROMETER. French road transport seems to have benefited from an "enchanted interlude" of the Olympic Games in August, with a new increase in freight rates. But the sky is darkening.
The Paris Olympic Games, which marked this month of August 2024, will undoubtedly remain etched in people's memories. In France, this event, often described as an "enchanted interlude", has partly succeeded in making people forget for a time the political instability created by the dissolution of the National Assembly in June. And the success of the Olympic Games has extended far beyond the borders of France. The Financial Times wrote that it was "the city's happiest collective experience since, perhaps, the Liberation of August 1944."
In line with the feeling of the majority of French people, the morale of business leaders soared in August and gained 3 points. According to the latest economic outlook from INSEE, growth in the French economy should be 0.4% in the third quarter, of which 0.3% would be attributable to the Olympic and Paralympic Games.
Unfortunately, this positive news does not disperse the gathering dark skies forecast in the coming months. Although on the rise, business morale remains at 97, three points below the long-term average. The outlook for many sectors is deteriorating and bankruptcies are beginning to spread beyond the smallest businesses. Everything seems undermined by political uncertainties in France, and the INSEE anticipates a negative development of the GDP in the last quarter (-0.1%). On the other hand, the health of our largest partner, Germany, is more than worrying, with zero growth expected in 2024.
The enchanted interlude for road transport
In the happy singularity of the summer of 2024, road transport prices in France continued to increase in August, with a noteworthy increase of 0.90% compared to the previous month.
Source: Upply Freight Index – Road France
It is certainly appropriate to use the expression “enchanted interlude” to describe the summer of French transport. The strength of prices in July and August is indeed surprising, while the usual indicators of fuel prices are down this month (-4%).
It is usual for spot prices to fall in August because France traditionally enters into a "torpeur" during this holiday period: the service sector takes a break, many factories close, for example in the automotive sector. Things have been different this year (...)
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