BAROMETER. Slightly more sustained demand, along with the caution of the shipping companies about returning to the Suez Canal, brought some life back into the Asia-Europe spot market in December.
In December, the shipping companies succeeded in stabilising transpacific freight rates and markedly increasing average rates on Asia-Europe routes. This uptick should take fourth quarter financial results slightly above the consensus forecasts which followed the third quarter deterioration seen by the majority of big shipping companies.
Four key factors explain this end-of-year market recovery:
- Sustained demand, driven, notably, by China’s aggressive export policy towards Europe against a background of widespread blank sailings.
- The expiry of quarterly NAC Q4 freight rates at the big NVOCCs (non-vessel operating common carriers).
- A return to the Suez Canal which promises to be much slower and less wide-ranging in the short term than expected by the market in October and November.
- A tanker war on the Russian ghost fleet which is now being waged well beyond the Black Sea.
Main developments
- The return to the Suez Canal
Certainly, the Suez Canal has not returned to the level of use it was experiencing before the attack on the Galaxy Leader in November 2023. “In the first week of 2026, Suez Canal transits were still around 60% below the same week in 2023, before widespread...
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