BAROMETER. Road transport prices have risen in May, despite low oil prices and declining activity. They have been driven up by spot prices, which likely benefited from a month full of public holidays and long weekends.
As the months go by and the twists and turns of the trade war launched by Donald Trump unfold, France's growth prospects in 2025 are diminishing. In its spring forecasts published on May 19, the European Commission now predicts a growth in gross domestic product of only 0.6% for France in 2025, instead of the 1.3% predicted in the February forecasts. The Banque de France is in line with the forecasts from the European Commission. Its macroeconomic projections also indicate a GDP growth of 0.6% for 2025 (0.7% in its interim forecasts of March), 1% in 2026 and 1.2% in 2027. "The cumulative revision amounts to a negative 0.4 percentage point impact on growth in 2025-27. This is mainly due to the effects of US trade policy, which contribute -0.2 percentage point,” specifies the Banque de France.
Many economic indicators have now gone into the red. The business climate in France, as measured by the INSEE, worsened further in May: it stood at 95.8, down 0.8 points month-on-month, driven down by the powerful sectors of services (-3 points) and industry (-3 points). Furthermore, household confidence is deteriorating sharply: the INSEE indicator which reflects it has fallen to 88, 12 points below its long-term average (100). The French are more worried about their future financial situation (-7 points).
Yet the French economy has shown resilience despite significant uncertainty, according to the Concluding Statement from an International Monetary Fund (IMF) mission. The disinflation process is well underway, the labour market remains robust. However, given the high and growing level of debt, there is a need to restore public finances and pursue structural reforms to stimulate sustainable growth.
Remarkable price increase
In May, road freight transport prices in France saw a remarkable increase of 1.3%.
Source: Upply Freight Index – Road France
The slight improvement in May is also reflected in the road freight transport business climate index measured by INSEE. For the first time since May 2024, it crossed over the 100 mark in May 2025.
Source : Insee
But it is likely that, as in 2024, this will be a fleeting peak (...)
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