The Spanish economy grew by 2.8% in 2025, driven by domestic demand, investment (+5.8%) and household consumption (+3.4%). This momentum continued into Q1 2026 with GDP growth of 0.6% — the best performance in the eurozone — although the pace is slowing. The Bank of Spain forecasts +2.3% for the full year, subject to how the Middle East conflict evolves.
That conflict is precisely the main risk factor. While Spain is less exposed to fuel shortages than other European countries (only 5% of its crude oil comes from the Persian Gulf), the surge in diesel prices had a direct impact on inflation, which rose to 3.4% in March and then 3.2% in April 2026. In response, the government took emergency measures: a temporary reduction in VAT on fuels from 21% to 10% until 30 June 2026, and a cut in the special tax on hydrocarbons. A specific measure for the transport sector was also introduced through decree RDL 9/2026: the mandatory and automatic revision of transport prices in the event of fuel cost variations, backed by a dedicated sanctions regime for non-compliance.
In terms of road freight transport (RFT) activity, 2025 closed out a third consecutive year of growth. Volumes reached 273 billion tonne-kilometres, the highest level since 2009. However, this growth masks two opposing realities: the domestic market is up (+1.3% in tonnage for hire and reward), while international activity is down (-4.6% in tonnage), hit hard by weak economic conditions among European partners.
Among the key structural trends, the driver shortage has become the sector's number one problem, with over 20,000 vacancies. Market consolidation continues: the number of companies active in heavy-goods transport for hire and reward fell from 60,717 in 2022 to 56,256 on 1 January 2026 (-7.3%), while the top ten companies now account for 23.3% of total sector revenue, up from 14.3% in 2008.
On freight pricing, Upply Freight Index data for Q1 2026 reveals highly differentiated trends across corridors. On the Spanish domestic market, pressure is significant. The supply-demand imbalance — amplified by the driver shortage and sector consolidation — is gradually shifting the balance of power in favour of carriers.
On international corridors, trends are more mixed. The Spain-France axis remains relatively stable, the Spain-Germany axis stands out with strong growth, while the Spain-Italy corridor remains one of the most atypical in Europe.
In summary, the Spanish RFT market is entering 2026 in a paradoxical position: an economy still robust, a sector structurally stronger than five years ago, but profitability undermined by external shocks — fuel costs, inflationary pressures, geopolitical uncertainty — that are testing companies' ability to pass on costs to their customers.
1. The economic environment
Key indicators: GDP, inflation, wages, industrial production, retail sales, foreign trade
Advanced indicators: PMI, Business Confidence Index
2. Road Freight Transport
Activity: volumes, turnover, vehicle registrations, number of companies, driver shortages
Main costs: fuel, remuneration
Payment periods
3. Evolution of freight transport prices
Spanish domestic market
International lanes: Spain-France, Spain-Germany, Spain-Italy
