BAROMETER. Thanks to a slowdown in demand after an early peak season, ocean freight rates seem to have levelled off during the second half of July.
Main developments
On 17 June, during a gala dinner in the Chateau de Versailles in France, President Donald Trump signed a memorandum of understanding with Iran. The Iranian president signed the same document remotely. But, on 7 July, hostilities resumed, bringing an early end to the 60-day truce originally envisaged. Since then, the situation has been very confused. The Iranian authorities are still blocking the Strait of Hormuz and the United States has re-established its blockade of Iranian ports. Negotiations are continuing but the Guardians of the Revolution insisted in early August that the strait would remain closed so long as the United States refused to accept their conditions. This enabled them to put pressure on the Trump administration as the mid-term elections approach. The ongoing stalemate in the Middle East, which has led to a long-term increase in oil prices, could penalise the president’s camp in the elections.
In early July, container traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait increased steadily, in line with announcements from certain shipping companies, but it is not at all clear that the trend will be maintained over time. There will be no overnight...
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