BAROMETER. Road freight transport prices fell again in March. But this is mainly due to the drop in energy prices, which is very good news for carriers.
In March, France was the European champion in inflation reduction, thanks to a very sharp drop in energy prices (-6.6%). This renewed competitiveness is combined with continued household consumption and a €500 billion recovery plan in Germany, described as a "budget bazooka". Positive factors that have helped to boost the morale of French business leaders: the INSEE indicator that measures this has increased by 1 point, even if it remains below its long-term average.
There is, however, a small cloud on the horizon: the estimate for growth in France's gross domestic product is limited to just 0.1% between January and March 2025, compared to the last quarter of 2024. Until now, the INSEE had been forecasting growth of 0.2%, so this represents a shortfall of around three billion euros. This situation means less tax revenue for the State, which risks complicating the construction of the 2026 budget. In its March macroeconomic projections, the Banque de France revised its growth forecasts for 2025 downwards compared to December’s forecast, from +0.9% to +0.7%.
"The main downward revision concerns exports, which are expected to be impacted by uncertainty over trade barriers and less buoyant global demand than forecast in December", said the Banque de France. Indeed, the international context remains disrupted by the volatility of the new Trump administration's policy on tariffs. In March, the climate was relatively calm, but in early April, the President of the United States announced massive increases across the board, followed by a real escalation with China and a 90-day truce for the others. In short, uncertainty is at its peak, and it is having an impact on all economies.
Transport prices fall due to the impact of diesel
Under these conditions, road transport prices in France fell again in March, losing 0.8% month-on-month.
Source: Upply Freight Index – Road France
This time, the gloom in the sector and the drop in transport volumes observed over the past few months do not appear to be the main causes of the decline. The curve is probably influenced by changes in energy prices.
According to the National Road Committee (CNR) index, commercial diesel decreased by 4.5% in March month-on-month, confirming February’s trend. Road freight transport professionals really need this breathing space. According to the latest publication from the consultancy firm Altares during the first quarter of 2025, road transport company failures in France decreased by 3.7% compared to the first quarter of 2024, thanks to an 8.9% drop in court-ordered liquidations. But placements in receivership remain up 12.1%. The improvement therefore remains to be confirmed (...)
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