BAROMETER. Road freight transport prices fell again in March. But this is mainly due to the drop in energy prices, which is very good news for carriers.
In March, France was the European champion in inflation reduction, thanks to a very sharp drop in energy prices (-6.6%). This renewed competitiveness is combined with continued household consumption and a €500 billion recovery plan in Germany, described as a "budget bazooka". Positive factors that have helped to boost the morale of French business leaders: the INSEE indicator that measures this has increased by 1 point, even if it remains below its long-term average.
There is, however, a small cloud on the horizon: the estimate for growth in France's gross domestic product is limited to just 0.1% between January and March 2025, compared to the last quarter of 2024. Until now, the INSEE had been forecasting growth of 0.2%, so this represents a shortfall of around three billion euros. This situation means less tax revenue for the State, which risks complicating the construction of the 2026 budget. In its March macroeconomic projections, the Banque de France revised its growth forecasts for 2025 downwards compared to December’s forecast, from +0.9% to +0.7%.
"The main downward revision concerns exports, which are expected to be impacted by uncertainty over trade barriers and less buoyant global demand than forecast in December",...
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