Global economic growth is expected to slow slightly in 2026, while trade will be subject to increasingly numerous and diversified risks, giving a new dimension to the supply chain function.
1/ A slight deceleration in the overall growth rate
In its updated forecasts for January 2026, the World Bank is slightly more optimistic than six months ago. Firstly, the GDP growth estimate for 2025 has been revised upwards (+0.4 points). "The global economy has been markedly more resilient than expected, despite last year’s historic escalation in trade tensions and policy uncertainty", notes the World Bank.
This good news is partly explained by a frontloading effect that boosted trade before the introduction of additional tariffs in the United States, but also by "easier global financial conditions, and a surge in AI-related investment."
The World Bank, however, believes that these supporting factors should fade, hence a slight deceleration in GDP growth expected in 2026, particularly "driven by a notable slowdown in demand for traded goods".
- After holding steady at 1.7% in 2025, growth in advanced economies is expected to slow slightly to 1.6% this year, as the effects of increased trade barriers weigh on activity. The United States will remain the spearhead of growth for advanced economies, with GDP growth of 2.2% expected in 2026.
- Emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs) are expected to maintain a growth rate of around 4%. China will experience a slowdown, with growth expected to fall from +4.9% in 2025 to +4.4% in 2026. It will nevertheless remain an essential driver: the GDP growth of EDEMs excluding China will be limited to +3.7%.
- The International Monetary Fund and the OECD, as always, offer slightly more optimistic forecasts, announcing global GDP growth of 3.3% and 2.9% respectively in 2026.
All institutions warn that the global economic outlook is clouded by a high degree of uncertainty. The trade war will affect growth for several reasons. On the one hand, the effect of tariffs could be felt more in 2026, as they are passed on in prices, which will reduce "growth in household consumption and business investment", the OECD says. In 2025, companies partially absorbed the increases related to tariffs while waiting for a more stable framework, but this position is not sustainable in the long term. On the other hand, the potential activation of other types of trade barriers, such as export restrictions, in the event of a further escalation in the trade war, is also likely to affect growth. Geopolitical tensions and conflicts could also disrupt global trade and commodity markets.
2/ A European economy still lagging behind
Among advanced economies, the euro area will continue to lag behind the United States, with GDP growth expected to reach only 0.9% in 2026, according to World Bank forecasts. The IMF is more optimistic with an estimate of +1.3%, but it still points to "unfavourable structural conditions". The euro area "benefits less from the recent technology-driven investment boost", the IMF believes. On the other hand, the lasting consequences of the continued rise in energy costs since Russia's invasion of Ukraine will continue to weigh on the manufacturing industry.
The European Commission, in its outlook published in the autumn of 2025, is forecasting growth of 1.2% in 2026 for the euro area, and 1.4% for the European Union as a whole.
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The European Commission is hoping in particular for a strong rebound from Germany, after a year 2025 that fell well short of expectations. It believes that tariffs and high global uncertainty are expected to continue to weigh on investment and exports, but higher government spending is expected to support overall consumption and investment. The IMF is more reserved, particularly regarding the impact of the planned increase in defence spending, estimating that this should not produce a tangible effect before 2028.
- In France, where GDP growth for 2025 was ultimately slightly higher than expected (+0.9%), growth is expected to follow a similar pattern in 2026.
- In Italy, an increase in household consumption is expected, and investment should continue to grow, but net foreign trade is expected to continue to weigh slightly on GDP growth, as exports recover less quickly than imports.
- Among the major European economies, Spain and Poland will remain the driving forces of growth, with a deceleration for the former and an acceleration for the latter. In both cases, household consumption, in particular, should support growth (...)
CONTENTS
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1/ A slight deceleration in the overall growth rate
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2/ An European economy still lagging behind
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3/ Contrasting inflation
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4/ An upheaval in world trade
→ An economic impact
→ A geopolitical impact
- 5/ Conflicting pressures on transport prices
- 6/ A sustainable transformation of supply chains
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